China Monthly

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It has more or less sunk in for everyone that the Chinese economy is slowing. The macroeconomic data from last month have not helped lift the mood, as most key data developed in line with April's disappointing data.

We expect this to continue until Q3, when we believe economic activity will slowly increase again. Despite this, we believe that the central bank will ease policy further. Rates were cute in June, and we anticipate one or two more cuts this year to help the economy.  

Read more in the analysis China Monthly for June (pdf)