Economic Outlook 2014- an update

Illustration: Economic outlook 1/2014 revised

(07.05.2014) We have released an update of our forecasts in the semi-annual report Economic Outlook from January.

Global growth for 2014 is marginally adjusted downwards, but the growth forecast for 2015 is unchanged. USA, Japan and Russia pull global growth down, while UK and Sweden are adjusted upwards.

For Norway we keep the story we have been telling for a while:
  • Norway is losing some of its tailwind, with lower growth in consumption, housing and offshore investments
  • Lower growth and a modest increase in unemployment will contribute to a moderate drop in home price
  • Dampened real wage growth and a modest pick-up in productivity keep inflation low, but last year’s NOK depreciation will boost inflation this year.
  • Norges Bank’s key policy rate will be left unchanged until the autumn of 2015.
So far these calls still stand, but for home prices we postpone the decline to next year